The Continuing Cold War in the North & India’s Foreign Policy Confusions

Not just in the present-BJP government, but even their predecessors from the UPA demonstrated a noticeable lack of clarity in their Foreign Policy especially with regards to the major Blocs of Power in the world, the Western (NATO) and the Eastern (Russia, primarily). Even before writing about the reasons for our confusion, I would like to observe a simple fact that even after the Cold War was “finished” by the liberalisation of the Communist economies, animosity and power struggle between the two Blocs has remained alive. This has become even more pronounced since Russia’s influence again rises in its neighbourhood and beyond, with most recent examples of its more dominating posture demonstrated by the recent conflagration in Crimea and the ongoing struggle in Syria.

It's not hard to discern why Indian Foreign Policy strategists are appearing confused in this status-quo, because even after the Cold War was supposedly finished, and of course, we too bent the knee by adopting a more liberalized form of government; we are still having to make choices about which country (or Bloc) we will give primacy in Foreign Policy matters. This is because also, among other things, a great Maya created by the Western Powers against Russia, a day-by-day propaganda campaign, imposing of sanctions, challenging their Allies in Syria and elsewhere, and so on - which naturally puts pressure on neutral Nations from dealing with Russia. With the constant and extremely jarring Russia! Russia! baiting on US news channels, would almost make seem like the Cold War is slowly turning into a Hot War!

So we have had to choose between the West and the East numerous times in the last few years, and it has had consequences. Commentators have observed that India’s actions (in FGFA, MMRCA, etc.) may have led to Russia’s recent advances towards Pakistan. This is of course a dangerous situation for New Delhi, for in case of a conflict, we would not have any steady pivot to balance any aggression and support to Pak. from NATO, USA, or even China for that matter.

NATO to this day lists Pakistan as a Major-Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) when it is well known that Pakistan is a Terrorist State that not only harbours and breeds terrorists but also uses them against innocent civilians across the borders in Afghanistan and India. Western Bloc has adopted a wise strategy of remaining patient at the moment is still with regards any commitment towards Pakistan while tempting India with Arms and Weaponry (which may or may not be superior to Russian equivalents).

What does it mean for New Delhi? It’s not hard to understand, all of the Superpower Status countries (USA, Russia, China) are more or less warm towards Islamabad while being more or less cold towards New Delhi. We still remain dependent on them for Arms owing to the general difficulty and time it would naturally take for Make-in-India goals, and this is not going to change anytime soon. But because of nothing other than inaction, and indeterminacy that our governments have shown, the next step on the same path only means that we lose all of the chips we have accumulated over time and will be forced to fold our hand altogether. Urgent clarity is required on Foreign Policy Matters in the status quo before this is resolved.

Arjun Chatterjee